The Bitcoin (BTC) bull run has barely even started, but Fundstrat Global Advisors is absolutely euphoric. In a graphic published recently, the investment advisory firm suggested that the “Fear of Missing Out (FOMO)” is quickly materializing in the cryptocurrency markets, boding well for BTC’s performance in the short to medium term.
— Adam Samson (@adamsamson) May 29, 2019
Fundstrat’s Lee Bullish on Bitcoin
In a recent research note, posted by Financial Times’ Adam Samson, the firm’s head of research Tom Lee explained that the Bitcoin market is currently experiencing “Level 5” FOMO according to Fundstrat’s “Degree of FOMO” scale. As seen above, this doesn’t mean that the cryptocurrency market has peaked though.
Fundstrat notes that investors have yet to experience “full-blown” FOMO, marked by a reading of “Level 10”. It is unclear how Fundstrat came to such a conclusion, but the company’s analysts are known for using the Bitcoin Misery Index to determine overall investor sentiment and the market’s overall direction.
Once Bitcoin reaches $10,000, “Level 10” FOMO will grace this market, which last occurred when BTC blipped above $4,500 in late-2017. If history is any guide, the cryptocurrency market will shoot even higher once $10,000 is breached. As Lee wrote on Twitter earlier this month, “[$10,000] will see FOMO from those who gloated about the 90% crash in BTC… and those who saw Bitcoin dead as forever.”
While Fundstrat has long had its eye on the $10,000 price point, its analysts never indicated a price target — until now anyway.
In a recent podcast with Binance’s chief financial officer, Wei Zhou, Lee explained that once $10,000 is breached, all hell will break loose for the cryptocurrency market. This corroborates the aforementioned analysis of this nascent market’s “FOMO levels”.
Per CCN, which reported on this first, the Wall Street analyst stated that once $10,000 is breached, there will be a “fast and furious” move to $20,000. And from there, Bitcoin will double in the next five months, reaching $40,000 in a jaw-dropping move.
Is $40,000 Possible?
While $40,000 seems miles away — and it is — many are sure that this price point is within Bitcoin’s grasp, even in the medium term. Analyst PlanB, known for his use of the stock-to-flow ratio (SF), recently explained that the impending block reward reduction will give Bitcoin a fair valuation of $55,000.
Per previous reports from NewsBTC, he explained that BTC abides by similar valuation rules than gold’s, in that you can use its inflation rate to determine a “fair” valuation. As it stands, Bitcoin has an SF ratio of around 25, implying an inflation rate of 4%. Once the halving hits, however, Bitcoin’s SF ratio will move past 50 to approach that of gold, giving BTC a lower inflation rate than most fiat currencies.
With there being a “nice linear relationship” between SF and the market valuation of an asset, PlanB suggests that Bitcoin would be fairly valued at $1 trillion, giving each coin a price of $55,000.
While $55,000 for each BTC seems irrational for most, PlanB writes that money from silver, gold, negative interest rate economies, authoritarian and capital control-rife states, billionaires looking for a quantitative easing hedge, and institutional investors will eventually flood into this space.
This in and of itself may seem like a pipe dream, but some are sure that this is likely, especially with the increase in hyperinflation, fiscal mismanagement, and speculators looking for attractive alternative investment opportunities.
Some have been even more optimistic, however, stating that $40,000 will be just the tip of the iceberg. In fact, many have looked to $250,000 or even $333,000 as long-term price targets. We’ll need to wait and see though.
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