Bitcoin Continues to Rise: But is the Bottom Really in?
A new report by market Delphi Digital has reiterated the firm’s earlier position that Bitcoin has already bottomed. The analysts focused primarily on the percentage of coins not being transacted for more than a year relative to previous market cycles.
The researchers form part of a growing number of analysts who believe that Bitcoin bottomed in December last year. However, some still hold that Bitcoin will move down before it moves back into raging bull mode once again.
Delphi Digital: The Bitcoin Bottom is In
Bitcoin is having a spectacular spring thus far. The leading digital asset has gone from around $4,000 to over $5,500 dollars in about five weeks. Such consistent gains have not been observed since the days of the 2017 bull market. With prices continuing to rise on yet another green day for the leading cryptocurrency, one research firm has published a report stating that the accumulation period following one of the bleakest of crypto winters on record has now begun.
The report by Delphi Digital, a firm specialising in digital asset research and consulting, is a follow up to an earlier Bitcoin market outlook report.
0/ Since December, our team has continued to state our belief that $BTC would bottom by Q1 2019. Today, we are excited to share an updated #Bitcoin Outlook report where we walk through why we continue to believe the bottom is in. Read more here: https://t.co/920MD8d7fk
— Delphi Digital (@Delphi_Digital) May 2, 2019
The company had original released “The State of Bitcoin” in December 2018. It stated that the market would find a bottom before the end of quarter one 2019. The latest research from Delphi Digital corroborates the findings of its predecessor. It says:
“We continue to stand by that call, we believe the market has bottomed.”
The researchers go on to write that that the market in fact bottomed in December last year at around $3,200. They base this conclusion largely on unspent transaction outputs – in other words, how long Bitcoin has stayed in the same place for. Those coins that have not moved in over a year are deemed to be held by long-term holders and it is these true believes that eventually provide support at the true bottom. The firm compared the percentage of these long-term holders with the figures observed during the 2015 bottom.
The idea behind the analysis is essentially that once the market mainly consists of long-term holders, there is no one left to sell and thus the bottom is in. A period of accumulation can then begin. Delphi writes:
“The 1 year+ holder rate during the potential December bottom is within 1% of the 1 year+ holder rate during the previous cycle’s bottom in January of 2015.”
Delphi Not Alone, But is This Really Crypto Spring?
There is a growing contingency of crypto analysts that claim that the bottom is indeed in for Bitcoin. The likes of Tom Lee has spoken about it at length on CNBC in recent weeks. He claims that institutional interest from potential clients of the forthcoming Bakkt platform and recently launched Fidelity institutional grade crypto services, as well as rising organic on chain transaction volume from places like Turkey and Venezuela will continue to drive prices up from the December low point.
Likewise, various crypto-focused Twitter accounts have opined that the Bitcoin bottom is well and truly in for different reasons:
The case for a bitcoin bottom is simple:
Price is supply and demand.
Supply is fixed.
Demand is apparent.
Halving is a certainty.
2015 bottom was 18 months before the halving.
2018 bottom was 18 months before the next halving.
— The Rhythm Trader (@Rhythmtrader) May 1, 2019
Some conclusions you can draw from this imo
– The bitcoin bottom is in
– The absolute lowest price $BTC can reach is now around $4,000 (even this seems unlikely at this point)
– There’s a few months tops of accumulation left before it leaves these price levels forever
— Moon Overlord (@MoonOverlord) April 25, 2019
However, not every cryptocurrency analyst is convinced. Constantly calling for lower prices is Tyler Jenks, of the HyperWave YouTube channel and Lucid Investment. Although Jenks admits that Bitcoin could well one day serve as a world reserve currency with a value in the many millions of dollars, he states that the price must first return to the $1,000 area. For him, Bitcoin has been in a pattern he calls a hyper wave and it must return to the trend line it was following prior to the 2017 bull market:
I have not commented on Bitcoin since we broke up through the $4,000-4,200 resistance zone. I believe we are headed back down to that zone and it will not hold. New lows coming. Target of $1,000 unchanged.
— Tyler Jenks (@LucidInvestment) April 11, 2019
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